Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A436-W243
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A436-W243
Release Date: January 14, 2009
发布日：2009年1月14日
Topic: A Tidal Wave of Discontent Threatens China (Wei Jingsheng's article published on The Times in London on January 14, 2009)
标题：怨愤的浪潮威胁着中国 (魏京生发表在英国泰晤士报上的文章)
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以英文为准（）
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中文版
Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A436-W243
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A436-W243
Release Date: January 14, 2009
发布日：2009年1月14日
Topic: A Tidal Wave of Discontent Threatens China (Wei Jingsheng's article published on The Times in London on January 14, 2009)
标题：怨愤的浪潮威胁着中国 (魏京生发表在英国泰晤士报上的文章)
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泰晤士报:中国最著名的持不同政见人士预测，中国政府将陷入愤怒的穷人和权贵的富人的陷阱之中
怨愤的浪潮威胁着中国
-- 魏京生
现在全球正遭遇着一场经济危机。像快要淹死的人抓到了一根稻草一样，西方的一些人说：中国政府有很多钱，快去求他们来救我们走出危机吧。但他们没想到北京政府这根稻草自己也不知道怎么救自己。
在看到两万亿美元的外汇存底的同时，很多人也注意到了中国巨大的贫富差距：0.4%的人拥有中国70%的财富；3亿多人民（占人口的五分之一）每天的收入不到一美元。这个财富极端集中的情况是一个严重的问题并威胁到中国政府紧攥的权力。
首先，这意味着能够消费的人太少，无法维系一个健康的国内市场。因而，这个被称为"世界加工厂"的经济特别依赖于国际经济的繁荣。中国政府昨天公布，与往年同期相比，2008年12月出口额下降了2.8%，超过了11月份的下降（2.2%），这是十年来下降最快的速度。
出口业的滑坡，殃及到了其他行业。中国政府声称目前城市的失业率是4%，但是官方的这种数据不可信。根据一些比较严谨的统计者的资料，失业率可能已超过20%。这意味着中国的经济危机比美国和欧洲都严重许多。
第二，失业率的增长和工人工资却得不到增长，推动了仇富心理，也威胁到了统治阶级的地位。对中国官方来说，几千万农民工，是最紧迫需要解决的威胁，因为他们过节后将返城，却由于工厂关闭而无职可寻。中国的农民有造反的悠久传统。
中国政府紧跟在美国政府之后，于2008年11月宣布投入4万亿人民币（约6千亿美元）公共消费金来救市。但这在中国是行不通的。因为中国的政府不是民选
的，而是由官僚资产阶级所操纵的。所以它不会为了普通老百姓的利益而行动，而是会首先去拯救占统治地位的官僚资产阶级的大企业。这些企业则会把财产转移到
中国之外的安全地带。
这一点已经是很明显的：从洛杉矶到日内瓦湖畔，超级富有的中国人正在争抢并用现钞购置房地产。随着失业潮而来的社会秩序的失控，社会将更加动乱，并使得更多的资本逃离中国。结果是加强这个恶性循环。
所以，中国政府落在可怕的两难的陷阱之中：要么是帮助普通老百姓（像1930年代美国总统罗斯福"新政"的作法），要么就是为官僚资产阶级牟利。但却不能兼之。
如果中国政府不采用"新政"的方式，它就面临人民的造反和政府被推翻的威胁。越来越多的证据表明，全国各地的普遍不满，正在转向暴力。2006年中国官方
公布的"突发事件"（"抗议"的委婉说法）是八万多起。据称2008年超过了十万起。这种怨愤的高涨正是中国历史的重演：各个朝代都以暴力达到高潮而结
终。
军队的镇压也不会有用。因为士兵的亲属可能就是失业的农民工；军官的家庭也会遭受危机的打击。如果中国政府真的要帮助普通老百姓，大商人和官僚的统治阶级就会推翻它，换一个能保护其自身利益的政权。
第一个替罪羊就是总理温家宝。他在四川地震后的眼泪特别出名。但他的眼泪可能骗得了老百姓，却骗不了官僚资产阶级。他的结局已经定了，剩下的只是时机的选择。
中国是个统治阶级内部发生很多政变的国家。上个世纪七十年代就有两例。一个是1971年，林彪主导的、不成功的反对毛泽东的政变。第二个就是1976年，
华国锋的成功政变，推翻了"四人帮"，结束了文化大革命。共产党内部的政变会形成一个暂时稳定的局面，给予机会着手解决面临的经济危机。
如果政府不能拿出一个解决方法，它就会垮台。在民主国家，政府更换是个正常的过程。但在专制国家，那却是个你死我活的过程。特别是胡锦涛和温家宝执政以
来，官员的轮替带有越来越重的血腥味。作为政治斗争的一部分，被枪毙和下狱的官员越来越多，通常的理由则是惩罚腐败。中共内不同利益集团的内部矛盾越来越
大，大家都想拿敌手当替罪羊。
从各种渠道和国内接触到的各阶层人士反应来看，人们估计，2009年天安门大屠杀20周年，或者2010年，将是中国老百姓对中国共产党忍耐的极限。一个
特别的案件很能代表大众的怨恨情绪。一个叫杨佳的人在挨打后作为报复杀死了六名警察并被执行死刑。但对许多中国的老百姓来说，他成了反抗的象征。社会各界
人士把他当作是侠盗罗宾汉式的英雄，网民公开给予支持。开庭时，法院门口拥挤着众多支持他的民众。他的人望栩栩如生地说明了中国人民的造反情绪。其强度远
远超过了七十年代对毛泽东政权的仇视，以及八十年代对腐败的仇视。
现在中国的大多数人和古代不同了。他们不再渴望一个明智的皇帝和一些刚正不阿的法官。他们已经懂得，只有西方式的民主制度，才可以保证他们想得到的东西：富裕、安全和受到公正的对待。统治阶级也是这样想的，这是为什么他们把财产和子女转移到西方。
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泰晤士报注：魏京生因为从事人权活动，在1979-1993期间及1994-1997期间，为中国政府所囚禁。1997年他被放逐到美国。1996年，他获得萨哈罗夫自由思想奖和罗伯特肯尼迪人权奖。
原文网页连接:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article5512157.ece
（魏京生基金会首发中文。请注明出处：www.WeiJingSheng.org）
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A Tidal Wave of Discontent Threatens China
The most famous Chinese dissident predicts the Government will be trapped between the angry poor and the powerful rich
-- Wei Jingsheng
The whole world is suffering from an economic crisis. Some in the West, like a desperate drowning man clutching at a straw, have said the Chinese Government has a lot of money, let us beg them to save us from the crisis. But they do not realise that the Government in Beijing does not know how to save itself.
China has a $2 trillion foreign currency reserve but it also suffers from a huge disparity between the rich and poor: while 0.4 per cent of the people hold 70 per cent of the wealth of the country, a fifth of the population - more than 300 million Chinese - have daily incomes of less than one dollar. This extreme concentration of wealth is a serious problem for the Chinese Government and threatens its grip on power.
First, it means that there are too few consumers to sustain a domestic market. So "the workshop of the world" is particularly reliant on the fortunes of the world economy. The Chinese Government announced yesterday that exports had fallen at their fastest rate in a decade, declining by 2.8 per cent in December, on top of a 2.2 per cent year-on-year fall in November. China's exporters are collapsing, pulling down other businesses with them. The Government claims that unemployment is running at 4 per cent in urban areas; but the official figures cannot be believed. According to some serious statisticians, the unemployment rate may have already passed 20 per cent. This makes the severity of the economic crisis in China much sharper than in the US and Europe.
Second, growing unemployment and stagnant wages will stoke the rising resentment against the super-rich, threatening the position of the ruling class. The Government regards the tens of millions of peasant workers who will return to the cities after the Chinese holiday season to closed factories and no jobs as an urgent threat. Chinese peasants have a long tradition of rebellion.
Following in the footsteps of the US Government, the Chinese Government in November announced a four trillion yuan ($600 billion) public spending package to get the country out of the slump. But this won't work in China. Because China's Government is not elected by the people its policies are run on behalf of the bureaucratic-capitalist class. Instead of acting in the interests of ordinary Chinese, it will try to save the big business enterprises of the ruling elite. But the owners of these big businesses will simply move their assets to safety outside China.
The evidence can already be seen: from Los Angeles to the shores of Lake Geneva, China's super-rich are anxiously snapping up real estate, paying with cash. The more turmoil there is - as unemployment shakes the social order - the more capital will flee China. This will exacerbate the vicious cycle.
So the Chinese Government is trapped by a terrible dilemma. It can act to help ordinary Chinese (in the manner of Roosevelt's New Deal in the 1930s) or the bureaucratic-capitalist class. But it cannot do both.
If the Chinese Government does not take a New Deal approach, it risks the Chinese people revolting and overthrowing those in power. Across the country there is mounting evidence of popular discontent turning to violence. According to the Chinese Government there were more than 80,000 "sudden incidents" - its euphemism for protests - in 2006; it is now thought that last year the figure rose to 100,000. This rising tide of discontent is Chinese history repeating itself - the end of each dynasty was marked by a crescendo of violence.
Military suppression cannot work. Soldiers are the relatives of the peasant workers who have lost their jobs; the families of the military officers will also suffer through the economic crisis. But if the Chinese Government does act to protect the ordinary Chinese, the ruling class of big businessmen and bureaucrats will overthrow it, and replace it with a Government that will protect its interests.
The first scapegoat will be Wen Jiabao, the Prime Minister. While his tears, most famously seen after the Sichuan earthquake, could fool the average person, they will not fool the bureaucratic-capitalist class. His end is set, except for the timing of his departure.
China has seen many political coups within the ruling class. The most recent examples are from the 1970s. Lin Biao failed in his coup against Mao Zedong in 1971; while Hua Guofeng overthrew the Gang of Four and ended the Cultural Revolution in 1976. A political coup within the Communist Party could provide the temporary stability necessary to solve the economic crisis.
But if a solution is not found then the Government will fall. In a democracy, the end of a government is a normal event. However, in a dictatorship it is a matter of life or death. Since Hu Jintao, the President, and Wen took power, changing officials has become bloodier. As part of the political struggle for power more and more officials have been executed or sent to prison - usually under the cloak of punishing corruption. The internal conflict between the various vested interests within the Communist Party is getting bigger with each wanting to make the rival factions scapegoats.
From what I hear from people of all backgrounds from inside China they believe, 20 years on from the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre, that time is up for the regime - they believe that in 2009 or 2010 the Chinese will reach the limit of their toleration for the Communist Party. One particular case sums up this mood of discontent: Yang Jia, a man who was executed last year for the murder of six policemen he killed as revenge for being beaten, became a symbol of resistance to many Chinese. He was hailed as a hero on many blogs, pro-Yang grafitti appeared across the country and crowds turned up at court to support him during his trial. The popularity of this man illustrates vividly the rebellious mood of the Chinese people. The intensity of this feeling far surpasses the resentment that was directed against Mao's Government in the 1970s or the corruption of the 1980s.
The people of modern China are different from their ancestors: they no longer expect a wise emperor and fair judges to rule over them. They know that only democracy will guarantee what they want: prosperity, security and fair treatment. The Chinese ruling class think this too - that's why they already send their children and their money to the West.
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Note by the newspaper: Wei Jingsheng was imprisoned by the Chinese State in 1979-93 and 1994-97 for his human rights activism. In 1997 he was deported to the United States. He was awarded the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought and the Robert F. Kennedy Human Rights Award in 1996
Background
* China's exports slump in sharpest fall in decade
* The boom years are over for Chinese exports
* China told to prepare for a global recession
* Hong Kong feels effect of slowdown in China
Original link of the article:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article5512157.ece
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