放松，中国航母不过一堆垃圾

Her new guns are installed. Her light-gray paint job has dried. Her airplanes are flying and her engines are turning. Thirteen years after she was purchased from Ukraine half-complete and lacking engines, the Chinese navy’s very first aircraft carrier is ready to set sail from Dalian shipyard in northeast China. The former Soviet carrier Varyag, renamed Shi Lang in Chinese service, could begin sea trials this summer.

       新火炮已经安装完毕。浅灰色的油漆已经风干。飞机起航，发动机启动。三十年前乌克兰由于无法供养她，将她卖给了中国，现在她将作为中国海军的首艘航母在中国东北的大连军港重新起航。她在前苏联的名字是“瓦良格”，现在她的新名字是“施琅”，将在今夏开始海上试航。

Just how worried should the world be?

       世界将该有多恐慌？

The answer depends on who you ask. To China’s closest neighbors, the prospect of a carrier speeding heavily-armed Chinese jet fighters across the world’s oceans is an alarming one. But the U.S. Navy, the world’s leading carrier power and arguably the Chinese navy’s biggest rival, seems oddly unaffected.

       这要看你问谁了。对于中国邻国而言，中国有了航母就有了跨洋运输喷气式飞机的能力，快速提升的中国海军让人堪忧。但是对于拥有着世界上最大航母群的美国海军，毫无疑问是中国海军最大的对手，似乎却没有担心的必要。

There are good reasons for the Pentagon’s calm. For starters, Shi Lang, pictured above, could be strictly a training carrier, meant to pave the way for bigger, more capable carriers years or decades in the future.

       五角大楼有充足的理由保持冷静。上图所示的中国首艘航母“施琅”，严格说来不过是艘训练航母，是为今后数年或者数十年中国大型航母群铺平道路。

But even if she is meant for combat, there’s probably little reason to fear Shi Lang. A close study of the 990-foot-long vessel — plus the warships and airplanes she’ll sail with — reveals a modestly-sized carrier lacking many of the elements that make U.S. flattops so powerful.

       尽管对“施琅”还是充满着争论，但是却完全没有担心的必要。针对这个990英尺长航母（以及她的舰载机）的一项最新研究表明，这种小体积的航母缺少美国航母那样强大的力量。

When Shi Lang finally gets underway in coming months, she will boost the ability of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to patrol airspace over contested sea zones, provided they’re not too far from the Chinese mainland. And more to the point, she’ll look good doing it. “I think the change in perception by the region will be significant,” Adm. Robert Willard, commander of U.S. Pacific forces, told the Senate in April.

Willard said he is “not concerned” about the ship’s military impact.

        威拉德说他“不担心”该航母的军事影响。

Carrier Census

航母调查

Shi Lang will sail into a Pacific Ocean teeming with carriers. First, there are the American carriers: five nuclear-powered supercarriers home-ported in California, Washington and Japan, plus six assault ships in California and Japan. Between them, the American carriers displace no less than 700,000 tons and can carry 600 aircraft. “Our Navy can carry twice as many aircraft at sea as all the rest of the world combined,” outgoing U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates pointed out last year.

      “施琅”将去航母如云的太平洋巡逻。首先，那儿有众多美国航母：五艘核动力超级航母（母港在加利福尼亚、华盛顿和日本），另有六艘突击舰在加利福尼亚和日本。此外，美国航母排水量都不低于七十万吨，可载机六百架。“我们海军在海上可搭载飞机的总数量，是世界其他海军搭载飞机数量总和的两倍。”美国国防部长罗伯特-盖茨去年就曾指出过。

(In comparison, the Chinese flattop displaces just 60,000 tons and carries no more than 40 planes and choppers.)

       （相比之下，中国航母排量仅六万吨，可搭载的飞机和直升机不多于四十架。)

Japan’s got two 18,000-ton assault ships, plus another on the way. Today they carry just a few helicopters, but it’s possible the ships will eventually embark vertical-landing F-35B stealth fighters. The same applies to South Korea’s four planned 14,000-ton carriers and the two 30,000-ton Australian flattops still under construction.

        日本这有两艘排水量一万八千吨的突击舰，另外还有一艘在建。现在她们仅搭载了一些直升飞机，但是最终可能会搭载垂直着陆F-35B隐形战机。韩国四艘计划中的一万四千吨排量航母也是这种情况，澳大利亚也有两艘三万吨排量航母在建。

Thailand’s 12,000-ton Chari Naruebet is an outlier: too small for more than a handful of aircraft, but nevertheless capable of carrying the country’s ancient, vertical-landing Harrier jets.

       泰国一万两千吨“差克里-纳吕贝特”航母是个例外：太小，可搭载的飞机很少，但仍可搭载该国的法宝——垂直降落鹞式战机。

India and Russia both operate full-fledged carriers with jet fighters aboard. Russia’s Admiral Kuznetsov is actually Shi Lang’s older sister. Her dozen Su-33 fighters are just rustier versions of the Chinese J-15. Lately, Kuznetsov has spent most of her time in the Mediterranean. India’s 30,000-ton Viraat and her 30 Harriers and choppers tend to stick to the Indian Ocean.

       印度和俄罗斯都有成熟、可搭载战机的航母。俄罗斯“库兹涅佐夫元帅号”航母实际上是“施琅号”的姊妹舰，其搭载的十几架苏-33战机与中国的J-15很相近。最近"库兹涅佐夫"主要在地中海活动。印度三万吨排量的“维拉特”航母及其30架鹞式战机和直升机可防守印度洋。

Of the 22 flattops already plying the Pacific or coming soon, none belongs to a country that China can consider a close ally. Today it’s not uncommon to see American carriers sailing in mixed formations with carriers from Japan, South Korea, Thailand and India. Beijing can only dream of assembling that kind of international sea power, with or without Shi Lang.

      在太平洋已有或即将出现的22艘航母中，没有一艘属于中国的亲密盟国。现在，美国航母经常与日本、韩国、泰国及印度航母结伴航行。而北京还无法具备这种国际海上力量，无论有没有“施琅”。

Empty Nest

空防在哪

A carrier is only as potent as her air wing, a fact the Pentagon appreciates. That’s why the U.S. Navy spends an average of $15 billion a year on new airplanes — about the same as the Air Force. Today, a Navy supercarrier sails with a 70-strong air wing. F/A-18 fighters, EA-6B or EA-18G radar-jamming planes, E-2 radar planes, C-2 cargo-haulers and H-60 helicopters are all part of the mix. The aircraft work as a team, patrolling, tracking and attacking targets below, on and above the surface and moving people and supplies to and from the carrier.

       五角大楼认为，航母要有强大的空中部队为之掠翼。这正是美国海军平均每年耗资150亿美元（基本与空军持平）打造新战机的原因。现在，一艘海军超级航母约可载机七十多架。F/A-18战机、E/A-6B或E/A-18G电子战机、E-2预警机、C-2舰载运输机和H-60系直升机都是其中的组成部分。飞机以团队形式巡逻，跟踪和攻击水下及水上目标，向航母上运送物资和人员。

Shi Lang will not possess anything close to that mix of aircraft and capabilities. China’s J-15 naval fighter, pictured above, is a rough analogue of the F-18, but with a shorter range, less sophisticated sensors and fewer weapons options. The Ka-28 helicopter hunts submarines like the H-60 does.

       “施琅号”并没有与之相近的机组配合及空中能力。中国的J-15战机（上图所示）与F-18类似，但飞行范围较小，传感器也不如F-18精密，可用武器也较少。卡-28直升机可像H-60用于搜索潜艇。

But that’s it. The PLAN doesn’t have radar-jamming jets, carrier-based airlifters or fixed-wing radar planes. Rumors of a Chinese copy of the E-2 seem unfounded, for an E-2 would require a steam-powered catapult to boost it into the air, and Shi Lang lacks even that basic equipment. To fill that huge gap in Shi Lang’s air wing, China is testing a Z-8 helicopter fitted with a radar. But such a set-up offers only a fraction of the E-2’s range and endurance.

       不仅如此，共军海军中并没有电子战机、舰载运输机或固定翼舰载机。有传言称，中国依照E-2仿制了一种战机，因为E-2需要一个蒸气发射机助其升空，但“施琅”并未安装这样的基础设施。为了弥补施琅空中力量的不足，中国正在测试一款装备雷达的Z-8直升机。但是只有E-2部分的飞行范围和续航力。

The disparity will only increase in the next decade, as the U.S. Navy finally deploys jet-powered killer drones, early versions of which are already undergoing testing in the California desert.

       未来十年内，这种差距还会扩大，因为美国海军最终将部署喷气动力无人机，其初期版本已经在加利福尼亚沙漠地区进行测试。

Defenseless

不堪一击

The same limitations apply to Shi Lang’s escorts.

        "施琅"护卫舰面临同样局限。

To protect its $10 billion carriers and their air wings from aerial attack, the U.S. Navy assigns several of its 83 destroyers and cruisers to sail alongside each flattop. The escorting warships boast super-sophisticated Aegis radars and carry 100 or more Surface-to-Air Missiles per ship. An American carrier battle group possesses more high-powered radars and at-sea missiles than most other countries’ entire naval fleets.

       为保护价值10亿美元的航母和空中部队免受空中袭击，美国海军配属几艘驱逐舰和护卫舰保护航母。这些随行船只中，每艘都配备超级先进的宙斯盾雷达，搭载一百或更多枚舰空导弹。与大多其他国家的整个海军舰队相比，一个美国航母战斗群拥有的大功率雷达和海上导弹都更多。

The Chinese navy has just two destroyers that come close to matching America’s Aegis warships, although more are under construction. The Type 052C destroyer, pictured above, carries half as many missiles as a U.S. destroyer, and its radar is unlikely to match the Aegis’ ability to closely track scores of targets simultaneously. On the surface, Shi Lang will be all but defenseless, by U.S. standards.

       中国海军仅有两艘驱逐舰可与美国的宙斯盾相匹敌，尽管有多艘在建。052C型驱逐舰（上图所示）可搭载的导弹数量是美国驱逐舰的一半，而且雷达能力无法与可同时紧密跟踪数十目标的宙斯盾相比。按照美国标准，“施琅”在水面上的防御非常低。

Underwater, the situation is even worse. American carriers travel with an unseen companion: at least one nuclear-powered attack submarine. The sub’s job is to patrol ahead of the carrier, screening for hostile warships — especially other submarines. After all, submarines are the world’s most lethal ship-killers.

       水下情况就更糟了。美国航母有水下隐形群组伴随：至少一艘核动力攻击潜艇。潜艇的作用是：在航母前面巡逻，搜索敌对战舰——尤其是其他潜艇。毕竟潜艇是世界上最致命的战舰杀手。

The PLAN has two Type 093 submarines capable of long-range patrols. Again, that’s too few for carrier-escort duty in addition to the other missions likely assigned to the Chinese attack-submarine force. But the bigger problem is communications. To coordinate surface ships and submarines, the Americans and other advanced navies rely on a mix of Very Low Frequency radios installed aboard special aircraft, plus higher-frequency radios for talking from ship to sub.

       共军海军有两艘093型潜艇，可进行远程巡逻。但是这远不足以进行潜艇护航，比如像应对反潜艇等其他任务。更大的问题是通讯。为了与水面战舰和潜艇协作，美国和其他成熟海军需要依赖机载特殊飞机上安装的超低频无线电，另外还需要高频无线电，在水面战舰和潜艇之间进行对话。

China hasn’t perfected that system. “Due to the limitations of submarine communications technology, the PLAN currently can only exercise relatively limited tactical control over its submarines,” Garth Heckler, Ed Francis and James Mulvenon wrote in the 2007 book China’s Future Nuclear Submarine Force.

       中国的这一系统还不成熟。2007年，格斯-赫克勒，艾德-弗朗西斯和詹姆斯-莫爱伦在《中国未来核潜艇力量》一书中写到：“由于潜艇通信技术的限制，共军海军目前仅可对潜艇进行相对有限的战术控制”。

For that reason, Shi Lang probably cannot rely on Chinese submarines for protection from other submarines. That realization evoked a rather pointed comment from National War College professor Bernard Cole. “As a former Navy man, I’d love to see them [the Chinese] build a fleet of aircraft carriers which, increasingly, are just good sub targets,” Cole said.

      正因为此，“施琅”可能无法依靠潜艇进行保护。美国国家战役学院教授伯纳德-柯尔就这一发现相当尖锐地指出：“作为前海军，我很乐意看到他们（中国）建立航母舰队，对于潜艇，真是越来越多的活靶子啊。”

Potemkin Carrier

绣花枕头

Leaving aside her modest size compared to American carriers, her incomplete air wing and escort force and the fact that she’ll sail without the company of allied flattops, Shi Lang could be even less of a threat than her striking appearance implies. Shi Lang’s greatest potential weakness could be under her skin, in her Ukrainian-supplied engines.

       与美国航母相比，除体积不够外，“施琅号”的空中部队和护卫力量也不完善，还没有盟军航母随行，因此其构成的威胁并没有看起来那么强大。“施琅”最大的潜在弱点在里面，即乌克兰提供的发动机。

Powerplants — that is, jet engines for airplanes, turbines for ships — are some of the most complex, expensive and potentially troublesome components of any weapon system. Just ask the designers of the Pentagon’s F-35 stealth fighter and the U.S. Navy’s San Antonio-class amphibious ships. Both have been nearly sidelined by engine woes.

       动力装置——飞机的喷气发动机，船只的涡轮发动机——是所有武器系统当中最复杂、最昂贵、最容易出现问题的部件。五角大楼的F-35隐形战机和美国海军圣安东尼奥级两栖舰都曾遇到过发动机难题。

China has struggled for years to design and build adequate powerplants for its ships and aircraft. Although Chinese aerospace firms are increasingly adept at manufacturing airframes, they still have not mastered motors. That’s why the new WZ-10 attack helicopter was delayed nearly a decade, and why there appear to be two different prototypes for the J-20 stealth fighter. One flies with reliable Russian-made AL-31F engines; the other apparently uses a less trustworthy Chinese design, the WS-10A.

       中国多年来都在努力设计和建造适当的战舰和飞机动力装置。虽然中国航空工厂在制造机身方面越来越进步，但还未掌握发动机方面的技术。这正是新WZ-10攻击直升机推迟了近十年面世的原因，也是J-20隐形战机有两个不同原型机的原因。一种采用可靠的俄制AL-13F发动机，另一种采用推力较小的中制WS-10A。

For Shi Lang, China reportedly purchased turbines from Ukraine. Though surely superior to any ship engines China could have produced on its own, the Ukrainian models might still be unreliable by Western standards. Russia’s Kuznetsov, also fitted with Ukrainian turbines, has long suffered propulsion problems that have forced her to spend most of her 30-year career tied to a pier for maintenance. When she does sail, a large tugboat usually tags along, just in case the carrier breaks down.

       据报道，“施琅号”涡轮发动机采购自乌克兰。虽然肯定比中国自己生产的发动机要好，但按照西方的标准，乌克兰发动机也可能不可靠。俄罗斯的“库兹涅佐夫”安装的也是乌克兰涡轮发动机，长期以来就存在动力问题，其30年的服役期中，不得不经常在港口进行保养。在下水后，后面总是跟随一艘拖船，以防航母出现故障。

If Shi Lang is anything like her sister, she could turn out to be a naval version of the mythical “Potemkin village” — an impressive facade over a rickety interior.

       如果"施琅号"和她姐妹情况相同，她将是海军版的“波将金村庄”，只不过是虚有其表的绣花枕头而已。

“As China’s interests expand globally, the Chinese navy needs to go further outbound, and an aircraft carrier is needed,” said Arthur Ding, from National Chengchi University in Taiwan. If so, China might have to wait for the carrier after the potentially hollow Shi Lang.

       台湾国立政治大学的丁树范说：“随着中国利益在全球的扩张，中国海军需要进一步走向深海，航母是必须的”。如果是这样的话，那么中国可能需要等“施琅号”之后出现更加强大的航母。

Photos: PLAN, Chinese Internet, U.S. Navy

图片来源：共军海军，中国网络，美国海军